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chimera probe-select

PROBE best-arm identification with a cheap-proxy control variate (M18-5). "Which model/config is best?" where each expensive reward (a real grade) is paired with a cheap proxy (a weak judge) of unknown correlation. PROBE uses the proxy as a control variate so the estimate needs FEWER expensive draws the better the proxy correlates — and stays unbiased when the proxy is useless. Prints each arm's adjusted mean ± interval, the winner, and — if not yet confident — the arm to sample next. Feed it recorded (proxy, reward) observations from a bench.

Arguments

  • DATAstr

    JSON: {"arm": [[proxy, reward-or-null], ...], ...}. Omit when using --from-log.

Options

  • --from-logstr

    Read observations from a ProbeLog JSONL (e.g. <home>/probe.jsonl written by `solve --probe-log`).

  • --deltafloatdefault: 0.1

    Confidence level (smaller = stricter).

  • --min-rewardintdefault: 2

    Expensive rewards required per arm before deciding.